Setups for next week

Here are a bunch of new setups for next week.

AIGAPDBWACRIDISDOWGNTXHBILUVNFLXOCR

$P on the radar

Pandora is looking pretty awesome. And apparently I’m a day late because it is up awesome after hours. I will still be watching this carefully though because it looks like it’s on pace to go challenge its IPO high, much like another FB move.

p

P2

Looking for some runs

After an amazing 3 weeks, I’ve finally tripped up over my own feet and got a little too ahead of myself. I made an aweful blunder on AAPL yesterday, taking a huge loss because I didn’t pay attention to the fact that there was a iPhone event, but also didn’t get out when I did find out because I got greedy. Today I also ended up over trading NFLX and blew some of the juicy profits that I had in that stock. Ah well, it’s just the trading gods slapping me in the face with some humility and to remind me that it’s not going to be a cake walk all the time.

By the end of the day though, I did enter into 4 new positions. Unfortunately I never did get a chance to get back into the FB position I was in before and really regret selling it now. FB closed right up on its high and all time high, tomorrow it will likely gap quite a bit higher. I would be surprised if it didn’t.

Anyways, onto the new trades.

AKAM
Actually I started this trade yesterday as I noticed it had broken out and MACD had crossed. This was a small trade because I was reeling a bit from the big AAPL loss.

AKAM

On the weekly chart, 52 looks like it should be an easy target for it to hit. RSI hasn’t really turned up much, so if this catches some big momentum, it could spike for some good gains.

AKAM2

BIDU
I was a bit late to the BIDU party today, but still got in before the second afternoon jump. I will be eyeing this trade quite carefully. I’ve been burned by BIDU in the past with false breakouts and breakdowns, and I don’t intend on getting caught again. The MACD has curled up and volume was good today, but there wasn’t a whole lot of conviction in the trading for the last half of the day. I would not be surprised to see a pull back for a couple days before it even attempts to push higher. There is still a risk though that it just reverses and falls back into the range, and the MACD rolls back lower. Seen that happen many times.

BIDU

Weekly chart shows a couple things.
1. This week is a great breakout from the bull flag.
2. This stock is erratic and can whip you in and out of a trade like crazy. Due to its unstable nature, the plan is to not overstay my welcome too long and keep this trade on a very tight leash.

BIDU 2

LNKD
LNKD has been a pretty steady climber. I entered some October call spreads, however I don’t particularly like the spread that I got into, since I will really need a big move to reap many gains on this. Otherwise, the MACD has sort of rolled upwards and the stock is making new highs. My target is 270. Patience will be necessary for this trade. As you can see the price action tends to be a little choppy but still with an upward bias. I need to be patient and not try to intraday trade this too much, it will be easy to screw this up.

LNKD

Last one, SINA
SINA is looking like it could seriously take off. After its last big run, it has settled for about a month, formed a nice cup, and can really take off from here. It tried to breakout early this morning but pulled back almost instantly. There wasn’t enough volume in the move, so this might move sideways a little. I am willing to let it have a couple days to move sideways, maybe test the 10 SMA, and then squeeze higher with a big breakout.

SINA

And, by big, I’m hoping 96 target big. Much like BIDU though, SINA has caught me a few times hanging out in a trade too long and I find myself blowing profits. I’m trading this with a pretty conservative call spread.

SINA-2

back on track, all time high.

It only seems fitting that this years biggest stock recovery story is the exact stock that has recovered my year in trading as well. It’s just silly that I’ve only been in it for 3 weeks and really late to the NFLX party.

My trading this year has hit a yearly high, and to be honest, even though I’m using a very small trading account, this is the most profit I’ve had in a year, ever. Pretty astonishing that I have continued to trade for almost 6 years while never making a single dime. Call it foolish…because it is. I want to say it was determination, but determination only kicked in this year. The other five, foolishness.

chart_1

What’s also insane is that this is the most gradual and moot breakout trade I’ve ever been in. I’ve caught countless of bigger breakouts in GOOG or AAPL, breakouts that I should’ve swung rather than day traded. If this is the gains I can get from NFLX, what would my gains have been in GOOG or AAPL. And when I look at the daily chart of NFLX, the intraday moves have been rather choppy and slow compared to GOOG or AAPL. I’m sure if I had tried to day trade NFLX I would’ve gone back and forth so much I would be in the red. Patience truly does pay, and so does riding a winner when it is winning. I was in AAPL at 390… my target was only 460, if only I traded AAPL the way I traded NFLX, I’d be on a beach!

NFLX

Unfortunately, the good times will likely have to come to an end, and I will have to eventually let go of this NFLX position. I can already start to feel the excessive love for the stock, but I do need to be careful. We are approaching it’s all time highs, and I don’t think it will just slice through it like butter.

NFLX2

As long as it closes north of 295 tomorrow, I’m happy, as I will max out my potential gains from my weekly call spread. I do have an open mind for tomorrow, that it could just fall back toward 290 since it came close to 300 today and never got close to going back to it. It also doesn’t help that there is a gap from today that might want to fill tomorrow. Tomorrow will definitely be tricky.

What might make things better is my call spreads in FB. I’m quite bullish on Facebook, and some call me crazy, but I like it. It made new highs today and it’s definitely a contributing factor for my recent gains too (although it is a big factor for my big losses last month as well). Compared to NFLX, it closed today much better and I still see higher prices by year end.

FB

Wtf happened!?

chart_1

Yes…that chart is accurate. Unfortunately I stopped blogging and spent more time over trading, and look what happens. It was a pretty sour summer watching myself self destruct all my profits and do the same ol mistakes that I did before. Lucky for me this time, that it was just profits I blew, and not my lunch money.

The last month though, there is a giant spike that has fortunately taken me back to my April levels. What happened, what the hell was that dip, and how did I get back so fast?!

I walked away from the trading screen for over a week and gave myself a break. I reset my mind and when I came back I came back without the “revenge” attitude. I re looked at what made the first half of the year successful, and analyzed why I was still not getting anywhere. The biggest contributor to the loss of the profits was simply over trading. Finding the trades aren’t the problem. I simply was just being too impatient and being in and out way too much.

If there is anything to take from the last two weeks, day trading is definitely not the way to go for me. I’ve began swinging the trades longer, and letting winners run. I also read into options more and realized I was doing it all wrong. I was always fighting the extra variable, time, and I often exited trades just because of it. I finally understood what Call and Put spreads were, and boy…. they are awesome. Why have I not used these before?!

So what now?

I’m going to blog again. It is definitely a great way to solidify ideas and review my trades. Things went pretty south when I stopped, so might as well go back to what was working.

Thoughts on short term GOOG and AAPL

Finally, the market actually had a reasonable down day, and a mighty powerful one. Volume was higher on the selling and to be honest, everyone was waiting for it to come. The way it was tearing on higher was getting a little too fluffy and it was only a matter of time before there was a catalyst to trigger some profit taking.

SPX

Futures are pointing lower, and it looks like volatility is going to start picking up. Here are my rough thoughts on where GOOG and AAPL may go in the coming days if the market continues to stay in profit taking / selling mode.

AAPLGOOG

I think trading puts on these will be profitable if entries are made carefully, and exits are made swiftly. Fast V-bounces can rip into those short trades quite quickly.

Gambling a tad on APPLE

Apple has been getting hammered along with this market pull back. It’s not a big surprise though, the number of eyes watching apple to see if it will break 420 again was enormous, and the odds that triple bottoms holding is very low. It has now fallen 30 dollars from that level. My ultimate short goal for Apple would be to see it hit 370, but like all stocks, nothing goes straight in one direction. The last two drops have been powerful with big volume, but we are now sitting pretty far out of the bollingers and the RSI is now teasing below the 30 level.

aapl

In the chart above, the last two times that Apple took a spilled like this and hit this level of the RSI and outside of the bollingers, the stock managed to pump out a short term relief. This was the basis for my very low quantity gamble on Apple to the upside. I hope to at least get 400 out of Apple tomorrow. 410 would be great, and anything higher would be a “wtf” moment.

Patterns don’t always have to repeat, so this trade will really depend on how it opens tomorrow morning. Remember, stocks can remain oversold for an extended period as well.

Update: 2013-04-19
Yes the quick gamble trade worked and pocketed some nice quick gains on the calls (actually bought another early in the morning when it gapped even lower and further out of the bollinger). It was somewhat of a scare early in the morning but it worked out pretty good. I can now afford lunch for the next month! Yeah!

sc

Major milestone! 100%!!

I am absolutely ecstatic right now. Thanks to $AAPL for falling through the 419-420 support, the account has reached the 100% mark this year, and we’re only 4 months in! For almost 5 years I have battled the stock market, and endured incredible amounts of pain, but now I feel like I have finally turned the corner. I am able to define what kind of trader I am, what charts I need, my strategies, and essentially have found a system that works for ME. The end result has been a complete reversal of my trading success and I couldn’t feel more proud. I’m positive that most people would have thrown in the towel if they had lost and failed as often as I have.

chart_1

I’ve posted in the past before how this chart has the single best thing I’ve done, and it still is. It continues to keep me motivated but also keeps my ego and greed in check. And for those that wonder how I went 5 years of trading without proper recording of progress…well..yah. I missed Trading 101.

So any new traders out there, when people suggest you read and study before jumping into trading, do it! It’s a lot cheaper! Some of the biggest things that I’ve learned that has helped me:

  • Avoid the venture exchange (or penny stocks);
  • Money management is everything;
  • Keep a trading journal – it keeps you honest;
  • Leaving a lot money on the table or missing moves is just part of the process. Move on and forget the last or missed trade. Dwelling will only lure greed and regret into your mind.

I have other trading tips that I tend to follow a lot listed in my Trading Tips page.

SPLK and TRIP setup

Quick post with two charts that I stumbled upon during the afternoon.

SPLK looks good for any entries along the 10 SMA for a potential breakout. This setup is obviously void if it doesn’t catch any bids along the rising 10 SMA.
SPLK

TRIP is a setup in either direction. I can see it taking a rip for a breakout after it had a nice bounce off the 50 SMA. If the overall markets go soft though, I can also see it reversing off this resistance and head back toward the 50 SMA.
TRIP

Trading update

Been awhile since an update on my actual trading progress. I took a short vacation at the beginning of the month and it really took me out of the trading groove. First couple weeks I had a difficult time maintaining my gains and constantly trading off of my set plan which led to a lot of mental breakdowns and profit giveaways. I did manage though to keep the account relatively flat. I had let greed seep in a little bit and kept trying to go for the big massive gains. Got away from the motto that I’m trying to follow “slow and steady wins the race”.

I had a nice refreshing weekend though and Monday started off with a pretty decent bang. My call for April was always for the S&P to make a new high (I personally thought it was going to hit 1600 for the headlines) and then pull back towards the end of April into May. So far, prediction is not too bad!

chart_1

I’m still proud of the progress so far and the direction that this chart is going. I believe the markets might get a bit sloppy and tougher to trade as summer comes around, so I need to become a bit more defensive with my trading and realize that the pace that this chart is going may stagnate for awhile.